Estimation of prediction uncertainties in oil reservoir. Developing and managing assets in an uncertain world presents a comprehensive survey of cuttingedge. Correctly sampling from this distribution is therefore essential for accurate quantification of forecasted reservoir performance. Petrophysical analysis is critical in a reservoir study because it provides a primary source of input data for integrated reservoir. Petrophysical analysis is critical in a reservoir study because it provides a primary source of input data for integrated reservoir characterization and resource evaluation. Modeling uncertainty in seismic imaging of reservoir structure. Developing and managing assets in an uncertain world presents a comprehensive survey of cuttingedge approaches used by industry to quantify the uncertainty in both conventional and unconventional reservoirs.
Modern engineers often encounter situations that lack of knowledge or limited resources, in order to make decision under this sort of circumstances, one must have the ability to treat the. After nearly 50 yr of production, an updated reservoir model was required for planning further development. Pdf link pdf add to citation manager reservoir characterization and uncertainty assessment using the ensemble kalman filter. Uncertainty analysis in reservoir characterization m96. Uncertainty and risk analysis in petroleum exploration and. Such a decision making includes buyingselling the field, wherewhen to drill wells, how much oil should be.
Uncertainty range in production forecasting gives an introduction to uncertainty analysis in production forecasting, including a prms based definition of low, best and high production forecasts. Geologic modeling and uncertainty analysis of a gulf of mexico reservoir yuhong liu, 1 peter g. This chapter presents an overview of petrophysical analysis, mainly from the viewpoint of data analytics. Zee ma uncertainty analysis in welllog and petrophysical interpretations \ william r. Watershed models suffer from large model uncertainties. The model is generated using the sequential gaussian simulation method. There are totally 8 producers marked by dots and 8 injectors marked by triangles. Introduction the modeling of structurally complex reservoirs is one of the most difficult tasks in reservoir modeling.
Download pdf geostatistical reservoir modeling free. In this chapter, we discuss reservoir modeling and uncertainty evaluation of judy creek. Threedimensional reservoir modeling using stochastic. The main steps involved in reservoir modeling include. However, many uncertainties exist in reservoir characterization. Uncertainty analysis of flow performance predictions involves identifying.
Uncertainty analysis and reservoir modeling pdf bitbin. That is, uncertainty in the reservoir characterization and modeling is caused by theuncertainty inthe inputdataand uncertaintyinthe inference, as shown in figure 1. Uncertainty analysis in creating production forecast. Pdf uncertainty analysis of a co2 sequestration project. This page topic builds on this with more details of how to approach uncertainty analysis.
The benefits of using realistic 3d models for reservoir uncertainty. The text puts the focus on geostatistical modelling of facies and heterogeneities that constrain the distribution of reservoir properties including porosity, permeability and water saturation. Reducing the uncertainty of static reservoir model in a. Uncertainty analysis of reservoir models featuring the application of workflow editor dr. The benefits of using realistic 3d models for reservoir uncertainty quantification. Commercially available software is used in the construction, simulation and analysis of the reservoir models. In the day and age that reservoir models are getting larger and more. A geological uncertainty study was initiated to identify and quantify the input parameters of greatest impact in the reservoir model. The quantification of uncertainty in reservoir management. Reducing the uncertainty of static reservoir model in a carbonate platform, through the implementation of an integrated workflow. Download pdf uncertainty analysis and reservoir modeling.
Properties core data special core analysis special core analysis special core analysis. Uncertainty and risk are big determining factors in reservoir engineering. Additionally, the events considered for reservoir analysis are commonly extreme events, adding to the analysis difficulty and uncertainty. Geological concepts are uncertain with respect to structure, reservoir. Multiple reservoir models are generated, all honouring both static and dynamic data in the historic period. The purpose of this document is to present, in one place, the theory that underpins pest and that underpins the plethora of utility software that supports and complements pest. Reservoir x from the niger delta region of nigeria. An advanced reservoir simulator can help reduce uncertainty, allowing organisations and engineers to make sound. Petrophysical data analytics for reservoir characterization. The phrase reservoir characterization is sometimes used to refer to reservoir modeling activities up to the point when a simulation model is ready to simulate the flow of fluids. Even if the set of models all honour the same data measurements, there is still significant uncertainty in the production forecast. In petroleum engineering, mathematical models of the reservoir are routinely. Uncertainty analysis in reservoir characterization and.
Moore and others predicting waterflood behavior by simulating earth models with no or limited dynamic data. Integration of engineering and geological uncertainty for. Many parameters of reservoir x have been determined with reserves of about 452mmstb deduced from the reservoir based on decline curve analysis and by considering current completion status of reservoir x. Reservoir geometry and dimensions the geometry and dimensions of the reservoir influence the selection of the model grid. Rigsby, 2 rohit sinha, 3 steve peterson, 4 joy thomas, 5 gregory zimmerman 6. Developing and managing assets in an uncertain world, y. Part 3 treats reservoir modeling, resource evaluation and uncertainty analysis. The purpose of this document is to present, in one place, the theory that underpins pest and that underpins the plethora. In addition, the author discusses the role of uncertainty analysis in the static model and its impact on volumetric estimation.
Uncertainty analysis an overview sciencedirect topics. Modeling uncertainty in seismic imaging of reservoir structure satomi suzuki1, jef caers1, robert clapp2 and biondo biondi2 1department of petroleum engineering, stanford university 2department of geophysics, stanford university 1. Uncertainty analysis and reservoir modeling book, 2011. Analysis in predictive reservoir simulation using gradient information, spe jour. Part 2 covers reservoir characterization using several geoscience disciplines. Elf exploration production has developed a unique set of tools. The understanding of uncertainties involved in reservoir modeling is an essential tool to support decisions in the petroleum industry. However, formatting rules can vary widely between applications and fields of interest or study. Uncertainty analysis is an integral part of reservoir modeling process to capture various uncertainties that influence the quality and accuracy of a reservoir model. Developing and managing assets in an uncertain world presents a comprehensive survey of cuttingedge approaches used by industry to quantify the uncertainty. This work critically examines the foremost statistical reservoir uncertainty analysis approaches, the current probabilistic and stochastic uncertainty modelling workflows which are typically based on. Some circumstances exist in which it may not be necessary to undertake a formal quantitative. These type of models include but are not limited to petroleum and geothermal reservoir models, groundwater models and surface water hydraulic and hydrologic models.
Keywords uncertainty, risk analysis, decision analysis, portfolio. Download geostatistical reservoir modeling ebook pdf or read online books in pdf, epub. Conclusion if 3d modeling is now well established as a central piece of an integrated study, the systematic quantification of 3d uncertainties is quite new in our industry. In our case make contact is more sensitive than others like as geometrical, petro physical modeling. Dec 04, 2017 uncertainty analysis and reservoir modeling. In doing this, it serves the same purpose for the next generation of pestlike software. Dynamic reservoir simulation is used to forecast ultimate hydrocarbon recovery on the basis of a given production scheme, or to compare the economics of different. Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of. Perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis and generate probabilistic forecasts to optimize operational constraints and improve field development request more info across the breadth of hydrocarbon exploitation there is uncertainty from acquisition, analysis, application, technology, and economics, all the way to timing and resources. Quantification of uncertain parameters in oil reservoirs is one of the major issues of concern. As the petroleum industry is heading towards operating oil.
The model uncertainty for each phase is illustrated in terms of the semiinterquartile range i. In this chapter, we discuss reservoir modeling and uncertainty. Estimating uncertainties in integrated reservoir studies. Uncertainty is a function of our state of knowledge. As each of these steps involves uncertainty, the resultant petrophysical data will have uncertainty. This method differs from other methods for generating multiple reservoir. Reservoir engineering techniques for forecast, reserves estimation and reservoir behaviour prediction analogues decline curves analysis material balance reservoir simulation reservoir simulation background model purposes model contents vs. Integration of engineering and geological uncertainty for reservoir performance prediction using a distancebased approach, uncertainty analysis and reservoir modeling. To study the effect of uncertain parameters on the behavior of a reservoir and to forecast the probabilistic. This was done in order to simplify the geometry for the downstream part of the study static and dynamic reservoir. Uncertainty analysis in reservoir characterization and management 7 risk apparently refers to vari ability markowitz, 1991, p. The analysis step in the standard enkf consists of the following updates. That is, uncertainty in the reservoir characterization and modeling. Part 3 treats reservoir modeling, resource evaluation and uncertainty analysis using integrated geoscience, engineering and geostatistical methods.
The integrated reservoir modeling finds application in. Uncertainty analysis and risk management in reservoir. The reservoir grid has been converted back in time to compare the reservoir model with the seismic. Perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis and generate probabilistic forecasts to optimize operational constraints and improve field development request more info across the breadth of hydrocarbon exploitation there is uncertainty from acquisition, analysis. This problem is, to some extent, analogous to uncertainty analysis or sensitivity analysis of a single modelling framework.
A method to integrate geological knowledge in variogram. Introduction exploration and production of hydrocarbons1 is a highrisk venture. Pdf uncertainty analysis in reservoir characterization and. Click download or read online button to uncertainty analysis and reservoir modeling book pdf for free now.
If the reservoir is small and vertical and areal effects are important, it may be possible to use a fullfield 3d model. Asnul bahar introduction uncertainty analysis is an integral part of reservoir modeling process to capture various uncertainties that influence the quality and accuracy of a reservoir model. It was found that the uncertainty of the model was relatively small from. Balanced between case histories and theory, the chapters in this volume equip experienced practitioners. In bayesian analysis, the posterior probability distribution characterizes the uncertainty in the model parameters estimated from an ensemble of models. Constraining uncertainty in static reservoir modeling. Download pdf reservoir model design free online new books. Spe 102492 quantifying uncertainties associated with reservoir.
This study focused on the reservoir modeling case of namorado, an oil field located in offshore brazil, the workflow, tolls and benefits of a 3d integrated study with uncertainties. Using 3d models as the basis for reservoir uncertainty. These reservoir variables are typically not directly measured by welllogging tools. In this session we will look into workflow designs and methods that have proven to deliver results in industrial reservoir simulation workflows. Reservoir modeling is the final step in the reservoir characterization process, and consists of building an upscaled geologic model for input to the fluidflow numerical simulator. Reservoir uncertainty assessment using machine learning. In addition, the author discusses the role of uncertainty analysis in the static model. The aim of geostatistical reservoir characterization is to utilize wide variety of data, in different scales and accuracies, to construct reservoir models which are able to represent geological heterogeneities and also quantifying uncertainties by producing numbers of equiprobable models. Judy creek is a large carbonate reservoir in the giant swan hills oil field, located in alberta, canada.
Philip ringrose and mark bentley share their experience, gained from over a hundred reservoir modelling studies in 25 countries covering clastic, carbonate and fractured reservoir types. Because of nonuniqueness of simulation models and uncertainties associated with the geocellular model reservoir parameters, uncertainty analysis becomes an important task that is required for making operational decisions, since such decision making process necessitates the quantification of model. Reservoir modeling involves the integration of different types of data as shown in figure 1 and geological knowledge to create a model that represents. We demonstrate that the maximum likelihood model is highly accurate in reservoir performance prediction. The book uncertainty modeling and analysis in engineering and sciences is a book for analysis about knowledge of modeling and analysing uncertainty. The design elements cover rock architecture, petrophysical property modelling, multiscale data integration, upscaling and uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty analysis and reservoir modeling download uncertainty analysis and reservoir modeling ebook pdf or read online books in pdf, epub, and mobi format. Geostatistical reservoir modeling download ebook pdf.
Geostatistical reservoir modeling download ebook pdf, epub. Do sensitivity first of all to know which step of geocellular model is more sensitive to volume calculation. With the help of the resgrid, a reservoir engineer can transparently take advantage of grid resources and services for computeintensive and dataintensive uncertainty analysis as well as enforce the understanding of multiphase reservoir modeling. Uncertainty analysis and modeling to analyze uncertainty in reservoir characterization and modeling, it is convenient to put it under the framework of a scientific process. This modeling usually is based on the detailed analysis of subsurface data carried out as part of a. Pdf a reservoir is the result of geologic processes and is not randomly generated. Developing and managing assets in an uncertain world presents a comprehensive survey of cuttingedge approaches used by industry to quantify the. This work critically examines the foremost statistical reservoir uncertainty analysis approaches, the current probabilistic and stochastic uncertainty modelling workflows which are typically based on various numerical models, and the very recent development of embedding some artificial intelligence algorithms which include genetic algorithms. Results of uncertainty analysis by basic monte carlo method for. Uncertainty analysis in welllog and petrophysical interpretations, uncertainty analysis and reservoir modeling. Uncertainty analysis and reservoir modeling request pdf. Fortunately, using 3d models as the basis for reservoir uncertainty quantification is now feasible due to advances in hardware and the development of reservoir modeling packages.
812 311 851 1515 1380 1106 1028 1031 1514 812 293 1424 1088 1023 1125 473 93 693 1141 545 1001 903 393 196 1466 22 807 554